Oregon saw its growth boom of the `90s slow to a near-halt in the past year or so, but Central Oregon bucked that trend in a big way, with the three fastest-growing counties and a growth rate more than three times the state as a whole, according to newly released figures.

Redmond, meanwhile, tops local cities by far, growing almost 11 percent over a 15-month period – almost twice as fast as Bend, which grew by almost 6 percent, still a big increase.

The new July 1, 2001 population estimates from Portland State University’s Population Research Center (http://www.upa.pdx.edu/CPRC/), released Monday, are preliminary and won’t be finalized until Dec. 15, after cities and counties get a look and appeal any errors or inconsistencies they see.

The estimates, based on housing and other data, actually extend back 15 months, to the once-a-decade U.S. Census, but can also be compared to the July 1, 2000 estimates from PSU for a 1-year snapshot as well. The numbers aren’t just about bragging rights or peering into a crystal ball – they translate into cold, hard cash for cities and counties, as some state revenues such as cigarette and liquor taxes are distributed on a per-capita basis.

The new estimate shows Oregon with a population of 3.46 million as of July 1, up only 1.3 percent, or 44,401 people from April 1, 2000 and an increase of only 29,050 residents, or .84 percent for the year.

But Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties take the top 3 spots in population growth, percentage-wise, over the 15-month period. Deschutes County swelled by 4,583 persons, or almost 4 percent, to total 119,950 residents as of July 1, the researchers said.

Deschutes County planner close to mark on growth guess

Damian Syrnyk, a Deschutes County planner who formerly worked at the PSU population center, was able to guess the county’s new population estimate within 50 folks, figuring it at 120,000. He noted that the once-a-decade Census always gives the researchers “a new benchmark” to work from, and that the estimates get more suspect the farther into the new decade they get.

“We (in the county) have slowed down in terms of land use permits, but building permits are pretty steady,” Syrnyk said.

George Read, Community Development Department director, said the PSU researchers are just “adjusting their numbers to match” what the Census – and the county figures – were showing.

Crook County was the second-fastest growing county in the state, with 668 added residents for a tally of 19,850, up almost 3 ½ percent from the Census figure. Jefferson County came in No. 3, posting a 391-person population gain, to 19,400 residents, for better than a 2 percent increase.

Central Oregon added 5,642 residents in 15 months, or almost 3.7 percent, to total 159,200. For the year ended July 1, the figure is a bit less strong, with a population gain of 4,150, or 2.7 percent.

While local growth rates are dramatically higher than the state as a whole, the county figures still represent a significant slowdown from the sometimes frantic growth seen in the hottest period of the 1990s. So they should prove to be a bit more manageable for most local governments to cope with – as long as an economic slump hitting harder elsewhere in Oregon doesn’t cut too severely into their revenues, especially money from the state.

Redmond growth boom surges; Bend still steaming along

But Redmond, the fastest-growing city in Oregon a few years back, zoomed to near the top of the list again in 2001, adding 1,479 residents for a July 1 population estimate of 14,950 – up 10.97 percent for the 15 months since the Census and up 1,190 residents, or 8.64 percent from July 1, 2000 – both figures close to 10 times the statewide growth rate.

“Wow – that’s unbelievable,” said new Redmond Mayor Alan Unger, upon learning of the sizzling growth numbers. “It’s a challenge for us.”

Bend, meanwhile, had added 3,051 residents since April 2000, to 55,080, for a 5.86 percent growth rate. Over the shorter, 1-year period, the city added 2,280 people, for a 4.83 percent increase.

Prineville was growing pretty fast as well, adding 394 residents, or 5.35 percent, in the 15 months since the 2000 Census, to total 7,750 residents, or 340 people over the past year, registering a 4.58 percent increase. Madras added 122 people (2.4 percent) in the 15 months and 70 of that (1.36 percent) in the past year, to reach 5,200 residents.

The real statistical oddity in the region is Sisters, which according to the PSU numbers added just one person – that’s right, one – over the 15 months, for a total of 960. What’s odder still is that the July 1, 2000 figure for Sisters was 975, which means the city supposedly lost 15 residents, or 1.5 percent of its population over that year.

Of course, the latest PSU population numbers also date from before Sept. 11, when terrorist attacks hit two major East Coast cities and, among other things, worsened an already softening economy. But local officials say they also are hearing that the post-9/11 terrorist fears could be fueling growth in the area, as some big-city residents strongly consider fleeing the dense populations that could remain prime terrorist targets.

Post-Sept. 11 sentiments could keep growth chugging

New Bend City Manager David Hales said there’s been an “increase in some inquiries” as “people are looking for sites to relocate, where they can get away from the urban areas where they feel unsafe.”

On Saturday, Bend city councilors, warned about a drop in room-taxes in the post-Sept. 11 tourist slump, but they also learned that building-permit numbers show growth hasn’t really slowed much, perhaps to the chagrin of those who believe the city is growing too fast.

“In talking to the people in our building permit division, permits have not slowed down and we’re maybe a month ahead of schedule,” Hales said Tuesday.

Hales hadn’t heard the new numbers Monday, but seemed well aware of what they would say when he told bend.com, “My gut feeling is that growth will continue.”

Crook County Judge Scott Cooper said the new growth count is “no surprise to me.”

“I think what you’re seeing happen is that all the reasons people ever wanted to come to Central Oregon and to live in Redmond and Bend are still out there,” Cooper said. “But they can’t find a place in Redmond or Bend, so they are coming east.”

Crook, Jefferson county leaders happy with manageable growth rates

Crook County’s growth rate of just under 3 percent for the year was happy news to Cooper.

“The nice thing about that number is, it’s manageable growth,” he said. “That’s just about right. We can live with that. I’d be concerned about 6 percent and 11 percent. No city can accommodate numbers like that for very long and keep its identity intact, and its infrastructure intact – it’s impossible.”

Madras Mayor Rick Allen also was happy to hear of growth rates in Jefferson County in the 1-2 percent range. “Those are great numbers,” he said, considering that Madras hasn’t had “real job growth” of late. The new state prison should produce a spike, he said, expecting that to happen, despite a state budget crunch, because of Measure 11′s mandatory sentencing requirements.

Redmond, he said, has the “biggest issues ahead of any city in Central Oregon,” because of that rapid growth.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 20th, 2001 at 9:44 am and is filed under Top Stories. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.