Following are the comments of Art Ayre, economist with the Oregon Employment Department’s Workforce Analysis Division:
Our first look at the 2003 holiday hiring season brings us a bit of that merry feeling. We estimated that the five retail industries most affected by holiday hiring added 2,000 jobs to their combined payrolls in October. Although this gain is smaller than the 3,300 jobs added to these industries in October 2000, the gain of 2,000 jobs is a very respectable showing. It is more than double the October gains in 2001 and 2002, during which Oregon added 1,000 and 800 jobs, respectively.
Another positive sign was that total employment in October in this group of five industries was slightly above the year-ago level. The previous two Octobers saw employment levels in these industries that had suffered substantially over-the-year losses. It appears that the recession-induced downturn in employment has come to an end for this portion of Oregon’s retail sector.
Job gains in October were strongest in the “nonstore retailers” industry, up by 900 jobs. This industry includes mail-order houses, on-line “electronic shopping” retailers and auctions, vending machine operators, and direct sales organizations. This industry’s seasonal gains typically start in September, and this year was no exception, with September showing a gain of 800 jobs.
The miscellaneous retail stores industry added an estimated 500 jobs in October, a gain that was larger than those of all prior Octobers since at least 1990! We’ll have to see if these gains hold in November, or are even added to. This industry includes florists, office supply and stationery stores, gift stores, used merchandise stores, pet and pet supplies stores, art dealers, and even manufactured home dealers.
General merchandise stores added an estimated 400 jobs in October, a middling showing compared to October gains of the past decade. General merchandise stores include department stores, warehouse clubs, supercenters, and the like.
Clothing and clothing accessories stores added 300 jobs, according to preliminary estimates. With the exception of the 700-job gain in October 2000, this growth is as large as we’ve seen in October in many years. It ties with the 300-job gain of October 1997. In addition to clothing and shoe stores, this industry includes jewelry, luggage, and leather goods retailers.
The last of the five holiday-related retail industries is the sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores industry. During the past three Octobers, this industry has pared a small number of jobs in October and added back far more jobs in November. This year it pared 100 from its payrolls in October, the same as in October 2002. In November of 2001 and 2002, the industry added 600 and 500 jobs, respectively, so we’re likely to see job growth in November this year as well.
Although October is the first month in which we typically record employment gains in this group of five retail industries, the really big job gains related to the holidays are usually recorded in November. So, we’ll be watching the November estimates with great anticipation to see whether this holiday hiring season will be naughty or nice for those seeking holiday jobs.
