If you are leading a race, but everyone is slowing down, you can ease up quite a bit, yet still stay ahead of the pack – and that’s just what much of Central Oregon did in the latest state population figures, released last week.

Whether growth is a “race” we (or anyone) would want to win is open to considerable debate, of course. But like it or not, the High Desert remains ahead of the pack in that particular race, according to newly released population counts.

With only a few notable exceptions, growth rates for Central Oregon’s cities and counties did slow down measurably in the year ended July 1, as estimated by Portland State University’s Population Research Center (http://www.upa.pdx.edu/CPRC/). Still, all of the communities kept on growing faster than the state as a whole – in most cases, by sizable amounts.

And if the early glimpse at a new state 20-year population forecast, due out next month, is anywhere near reality, the region can expect that flood of newcomers to continue, however the nation’s economy fares. Picture, for example, a Bend in 2025 of almost 105,000 residents, Redmond exploding to more than 47,000 residents, or a Deschutes County that is home to more than 230,000 people – populations double to triple the current figures. Frightening or not, it’s something local governments need to prepare for, as best they can.

Oregon topped the 3.5 million mark for the first time in the July 2002 figures, a growth rate of almost 1 percent from a year earlier. That represents a continued slowdown, as also seen in recent years, while the state’s torrid growth (economic and otherwise) of the 1990s continued to cool. The previous population-reporting period – one of 15 months, due to the April 1, 2000 Census – saw the state grow by almost 1.5 percent.

Deschutes County experienced a more dramatic slowdown in its growth rate, from almost 6 percent in 2000-2001 to only about 3 ½ percent in the most recent 12-month period, for a population of 126,500. But that growth rate – about four times the state as a whole – beats the big Wilamette Valley counties and also tops Central Oregon. Jefferson County was the region’s No. 2 in growth, at 2.3 percent in the past year, followed by Crook County, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier – a figure still twice the statewide rate.

Even with the shorter, 12-month counting period, for most cities and counties, as well as the state as a whole, “the growth rate is slower for the year,” said PSU population researcher Qian Cai. “The economic situation has not been great. Washington state also has a slower growth rate.”

Building permit counts are used to calculate the city population estimates, while the formula for county figures includes four variables: Births, school enrollment, tax returns and Medicare data, Cai said. And, as local governments know well, each year farther out from an in-the-flesh U.S. Census count brings more estimates – and, some would say, guesstimates – about how many folks are really out there.

Recession hasn’t killed growth, this time

George Read, a long-time Deschutes County planner and the county’s Community Development Department director, remembers well the last time the economic pendulum swung toward recession, and the blow it struck in this region. So he’s surprised – even amazed – at how well the area is faring this time, compared to 20 years ago.

“In the last big recession, there was out-migration,” he said. “For things to continue to grow at this rate, with a significant recession and the unemployment numbers we’ve had, is kind of unusual.”

As has been the case in most recent years, Redmond – benefiting from the “bedroom community” attraction of relatively cheaper housing costs, compared to Bend – topped the growth rates among larger cities in the region, rising 7.7 percent in a year, to 16,110 residents. Still, that’s quite a bit less sizzling than the phenomenal (and, the experts warn, unsustainable) growth rate of almost 11 percent in the 15 months ended July 1, 2001.

Bend’s preliminary population count for 7/1/2002 stands at 57,750, almost 5 percent higher than a year earlier, but again, down from the previous year’s growth rate of almost 6 percent.

Prineville saw a small reduction in its growth rate of roughly 5 percent, to 8,150 residents, while Madras saw something similar, growing by 1.7 percent to 5,290 residents.

But, as is the case with statistics, the pendulum swings more wildly, when it comes to smaller towns – each person gained or lost represents a much bigger percentage of the whole.

And that’s definitely true in Sisters, which beat the big cities by growing 12 ½ percent in just a year, to 1,080 residents. By numerical count, that’s a rise of only 120 residents, thanks to annexations and the like, but quite a jump percentage-wise. Culver in Jefferson County gained 40 residents, to 840, for a fairly typical 5 percent growth rate.

Metolius `boom’ reflects successful Census challenge

Then there’s the town of Metolius, which sticks out like a sore thumb, but for a good reason. If you just look at PSU’s July 1 readings for this year and last, the city grew by 110 residents, to 770 – a whopping 16.6 percent jump in just a year.

But that’s more of an adjustment, than actual growth. Metolius had challenged the 2000 Census count, claiming the feds failed to include a mobile home and RV park the city annexed in 1990.

And after a process that took almost two years, the Census Bureau in March said the city was right, and adjusted that 2000 Census number from 635 to 729 – fewer than 100 people, but quite a gain, percentage-wise.

Metolius City Recorder Donna McCormack knows, like every other local government official, that all this talk about population numbers isn’t a bragging-rights issue, but one of dollars and cents.

“It’s actual money,” said McCormack, who has been the city recorder for five years. “Gas taxes, cigarette taxes and the liquor taxes are distributed on the basis of population.”

So when she got the latest figures, McCormack wasn’t shocked, just pleased: “I think the numbers are correct,” she said.

The numbers released in November are a preliminary count, allowing local governments to question or challenge them before the figures are certified in mid-December. Last year, Deschutes County successfully challenged the county figure, claiming it undercounted the rural residents – and indeed, PSU upped the county total by 2,100 residents, also boosting the state tally (see earlier bend.com story, http://my.bend.com/news/ar_view.php?ar_id=3482).

County senior planner Damian Syrnyk – a former PSU Population Research Center worker – said that while county officials are still reviewing the new figures, they seem “pretty close” to what the county’s own building-permit figures would indicate.

“We issued a little over 700 permits for new houses and manufactured homes (outside the cities) last year,” Syrnyk said. “We don’t know if vacancy rates affected how many were occupied.” While a challenge is possible, it would be a smaller difference, and not “a sure thing” like last year’s discrepancy, he said.

But Read, Syrnyk’s boss, believes there’s an under-count again in the county, since subtracting out the cities’ growth gives the rural county “510 more people, but 738 more houses.” He figures the 12-month growth rate was a bit higher, on the order of 4.2 percent.

Last 20-year prediction underestimated growth

And Read said the local governments have finished work on their own coordinated 20-year population forecast, having gotten tired of waiting for the state’s Office of Economic Analysis to finish its work. He noted that the last 20-year coordinated forecast, finished in 1997, underestimated the continued growth seen since then. For example, he said, it predicted a Bend population of about 68,000 in 2020 – almost 30,000 fewer than now expected by that time.

Brian Shetterly, the city of Bend’s principal planner, said the latest PSU population count of 57,750 residents “just looks like a continuation of the past year. It’s right in line with what we’ve been seeing. The average growth rate over the past 12 years, 1990 to 2002, is 5.9 percent.”

“You look at the factors that seem to be driving that kind of growth, and they are still here,” Shetterly said. “I think you look at the things that have made this an attractive place for people to move here – the mountains, all the recreational opportunities.”

“People who have the option of going anywhere are choosing to come here, and that’s entirely understandable,” the city planner said. “It makes you realize how relative the term `problems’ is. This place has so much going for it, people see that and want to be a part of it.”

While traffic and other growth-related issues are of growing importance and need attention, “we need to keep them in perspective,” Shetterly said. “When your commute time increases even a couple minutes, it doesn’t matter to you that people in Portland take 30 minutes on average, or somewhere else 45 minutes.”

Like many former big-city dwellers, Shetterly, who used to live in the Portland suburb of Gresham, knows “it’s going to be a long time” until Bend commutes are of that dismal nature.

Seeing Portland-area TV traffic reports, “I see those Banfield (Freeway) images and I’m transported right back to the bad old days,” he said. “But it’s true, they are reaching the point in the metro area where they acknowledge they are just not going to be able to build their way out of congestion,” so planners are factoring that longer commute time into their work.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 26th, 2002 at 5:41 pm and is filed under Top Stories. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.